By Elizabeth Nader
In 2017, Governor Phil Murphy famously promised to make New Jersey the “California of the East.” Love him or hate him, it’s hard to deny that he’s gotten pretty darn close to fulfilling that promise.
California and New Jersey both surpass the national average for illegal immigrants living in our states. Both our states have chart-topping income and property taxes, and ranked in the bottom ten in the 2025 State Tax Competitiveness index. We both boast some of the worst unemployment rates in the country.
When California passes a Left-win policy, New Jersey is usually right behind them. In 2020, California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that the sale of new gas vehicles would be banned after 2035. Governor Murphy signed a copy-cat policy in 2023. In October 2024, Newsom signed the so-called “Freedom to Read Act” that in effect gives full immunity to school staff who expose students to sexually explicit materials. In December, Governor Murphy signed the same bill (same name!) in New Jersey. Copy, paste, repeat. And the list goes on.
It’s not surprising that, according to one 2024 report, we’ve now surpassed California for outbound migration (i.e. people getting the heck out of town).
Will the next Governor finish the job of turning us into California? Or will we turn the car around right at the edge of the cliff?
That all depends on what happens in the upcoming 2025 Gubernatorial elections.
There are some early indicators. The latest Emerson poll shows Donald Trump with a higher approval rating than Governor Murphy among Garden State voters. According to the report, “A majority (63%) of voters feel their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living,” and the economy is the top issue for 2025 voters. While Democrat favorability is holding strong with Democrats, Independents aren’t happy with the reigning party or the direction of the state, which is critical in a state where there are almost as many unaffiliated or Independent voters as Democrats. Democratic candidates will have trouble distancing themselves from the Governor. And with long voting records of raising taxes, ignoring the border crisis, and pushing a woke agenda in an era of unprecedented Trump favorability, they have a steep hill to climb. Will voters see through their hasty repackaging of their brands?
The credibility of the candidates on the November ballot will depend significantly on engagement in the June primary. Primaries in New Jersey tend to boast low participation, often giving outsized influence to party bosses and influencers and yielding results not reflective of the population. If voters want to turn this state around, they need to vote in primaries and check the voting records of candidates.
As a New Jerseyan, it’s one thing to watch California lie in the bed they’ve made. But it infuriates me to watch our state go down the same path. It’s simply not what the vast majority of hardworking, common sense people of New Jersey want, as evidenced by Kamala Harris’ razor thin margins in a traditionally blue state. We aren’t academic, coastal elites playing in an experimental petri-dish of Left-wing fantasies. And we’re heartbroken as our children, grandchildren and friends leave us behind to find the American dream somewhere else. This is our state and we want it back.
Elizabeth Nader is an author, President of New Jersey’s Common Sense Club, and leader of Elect Common Sense, a PAC dedicated to supporting candidates for local offices. She resides in Morris County with her husband and children.